Sunday, October 25, 2009

Bouncing Back

Great teams bounce back. Period. So when two supposed favorites in the Champions League lost their respective games, it took exactly 4 days for each to show whether or not they had what it takes.

Guess what? Liverpool isn't just a two-man team. Technically, they can be a one-man team when Fernando Torres is given half a chance. In seriousness, Liverpool played like their title hopes depended on this game, which they did. And they came through admirably, beating Manchester United comprehensively. It's not as though ManU has lost its bite after Ronaldo and Tevez left; they've simply reorganized at the front. They're more of a squad club now.

Liverpool has two world class players, a couple of very very good players, and the rest simply good players. When one of those world class players, Torres, comes through for them, they're unstoppable. It shows real character to beat one of their biggest rivals after losing 4 straight.

Now granted, without Ronaldo and Tevez, Manchester United have scored fewer goals. Their strikers consist of a semi-injured poacher, a languid playmaker, and a top-quality support striker. Who is going to take the initiative? Nobody, and that's why Carragher and Agger dealt so smoothly with everything United had to offer. With the aging Rio Ferdinand and the temperamental Vidic in the back, Liverpool know that it's only a matter of time before they set Torres loose. They played like winners today, and considering the state of the boardroom, finances, and record of the club, that's quite a compliment.

Real Madrid on the other hand has the raw talent to win the treble. The question is, will they? With them, the problem is mental. Nobody is saying that a team with Kaka, Xabi Alonso, Granero, Raul, Benzema, and Casillas in the back isn't good enough... nobody, that is, except for the players themselves. The draw with Sporting Gijon highlights the problems with buying a team instead of building one. Not only do the players have to gel together, but they have to get used to winning. Neither of these things have happened, and it will start to turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. The more they lose, the more they'll believe they can't win. There's really only one thing that can halt this slide, and I hate to say it: Cristiano Ronaldo. He single-handedly wins games and he makes players around him better just by being on the pitch. When he's in the game, players are mentally more confident because they know that he can pick up the pieces. If Ronaldo's return doesn't bolster the failing Madrid, then we will see quite a few changes in the management. Hell, Pellegrini could be sacked this weekend.

Liverpool are used to winning. This Madrid team isn't. That mentality is the difference between a three goal comeback in Instanbul, and a 0-0 draw to a relegation-tipped side. Don't expect too much from the Merengues this season.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Le Underrated

The team that nobody saw coming: Lyon. Take a good look at them now, because they're going places in the Champions League. Getting rid of Benzema could have been a blessing in disguise. Check out who they bought: Gomis, Cissokho, and Lisandro. All for getting rid of a single striker (and the aging Juninho). They recieved very little press coverage and have been quietly turning themselves into a force to be reckoned with.

Lyon have scored 7 goals and conceded 1 in the Champions League. Considering their opponents, that is impressive. Lyon went to Anfield and got a win. Now, let's not forget that Gerrard and Torres were absent, but a win at Anfield is a win at Anfield. Last season, Liverpool had the most high-powered offense in the league. Lyon let in a single goal from them and scored 2 of their own. Then they blanked Fiorentina, a small club that is quickly rising to the level of Champions League regulars. Fiorentina's offense is no less potent; Mutu, Gilardino, Jovetic, with Vargas adding goals and support from Zanetti and Montolivo in the midfield. That says quite a bit about Lyon's defense. They are now virtually guaranteed to finish top of their group, and who knows what could happen from there.

Meanwhile, we could see Liverpool parachute into the Europa League. I hope they do, because it is pretty much the only thing that can guarantee Rafa getting the sack. Bye bye.

Lyon can take on almost any team in the Champions League right now. Chelsea and Barcelona are the two exceptions, and of course the unpredictable AC Milan. But look for them to head to the quarterfinals this season. You heard it here first.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Strikers Ranked

The world's best strikers, ranked as I see fit.

1. Didier Drogba
2. David Villa
3. Fernando Torres
4. Zlatan Ibrahimovic
5. Wayne Rooney
6. Thierry Henry
7. Ruud van Nistelrooy
8. Samuel Eto'o
9. Robin van Persie
10. Luis Fabiano

and finally

11. Thomas Vermaelen

Ok sike on that last one. He does have a way of scoring goals though, doesn't he?

Happens to the Best of Us

Barcelona lost today, to a vastly inferior side. It wasn't that FC Rubin Kazan shouldn't have won- they earned everything they got. But Barcelona had 20 shots and probably close to 70% possession. They hit the post twice and had appeals for penalties denied. If Lady Luck was smiling on anybody tonight, it was the Russians.

Barcelona are still joint group leaders, and they will likely win their group. Inter is in last place and they drew two of those games at home. Imagine how it will be when they play in Ukraine... or at the Nou Camp. Barcelona just lost at home, but they get to host Inter and Dinamo later on. The question is, will this happen again?

A draw this weekend with Valencia, combined with this loss, should have Pep seething. He was missing Thierry Henry and now he's also missing Dani Alves for three weeks. Real Madrid are on an upsurge right now. If Barcelona don't get their shit together IMMEDIATELY, they risk losing the title. Barca need to get positive momentum going so they can a) beat Rubin Kazan in Russia, and b) beat Real Madrid in the league a few weeks later. Should both of those things come to pass, and the squad stays injury free, we could see Barcelona regain their crown as La Liga AND Champions League kings. You heard it here first.

Uh Oh

It's officially crisis time-- again. And this is the earliest it's ever happened.

Liverpool just lost 4 games on the trot. They have their two main (only) players sidelined with injuries, and no viable replacements. They are financially hamstrung and they're losing support every second.

What to do? Well the answer is simple, and it's been coming for quite some time: GET RID OF RAFA. This might finally be the season that does it. If Liverpool bounce out of the Champions League Group Stage and into the Europa League, Rafa will get the chop. And good riddance.

Everything about this guy is fucking ridiculous. His inane rotation policy? Why? What purpose does it serve except to destabilize those players with a decent run of form?

Positioning formations? Who the fuck puts Fabio Aurelio as a defensive midfielder? What is this guy thinking? And for that matter, why does he insist on playing with wingers when nobody on the team is a natural wide-man? Why not try the Christmas tree formation, with Benayoun and Kuyt supporting Torres, and Gerrard, Mascherano, and Lucas anchoring the base of the tree? Seems like it would fit better.

The transfer market - except for Torres and Mascherano, Rafa hasn't done shit. Robbie Keane? Useless. Getting rid of Peter Crouch? Why? Buying Glen Johnson and letting Xabi Alonso go? I don't think he's quite the replacement you were looking for. Let's see how Aquilani does.

Rafa is a terrible manager. Liverpool have been getting by on the strength of their players for far too long, but that's starting to fade quickly. Get rid of him and bring in someone who knows what the fuck they're doing. Now.

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Form? Or Class?

What's the difference between form and class? As one famous pundit whose name I don't give a shit about said, "form is fleeting; class is permanent."

Nobody would argue that Cristiano Ronaldo or Lionel Messi are world class players, regardless of their form. But the question is raised: when players who are simply above average but not world class play exceptionally, how can you tell whether they've raised their game or are just in a good run of confidence and luck?

One player who I've been wondering about lately is Darren Bent. He's scored 8 goals in 9 appearances for Sunderland, and is in sparkling form lately. Looks like the best bit of business that Sunderland have done in a while. The question remains though: is Bent, a player who scored only 18 goals in 60 appearances for Tottenham, truly coming into his own? Or is it a run of form from an above average player?

I hate to say it, but I think it's the latter. World class players are brilliant no matter what club they play for, no matter which club they play against, and no matter who is on the pitch with them. At Tottenham, this wasn't the case. Although he excelled at Charlton and will likely do well at Sunderland, all it will take is a defensive lapse, a poor run of results, or an injury to do him in. It reminds me of Agbonlahor from last season. He went on a run of scoring with something like 10 goals in 13 matches, but then all of a sudden the goals dried up. He's good, but he's not world class.

Time will tell with Bent. It'll take a couple shitty games from Sunderland before we see whether he can keep on pumping out goals, or if he folds under the pressure.

The 'Pool Isn't Deep

If I had to make a list of players that are "above average but not world class," it would pretty much encompass the entire Liverpool squad. Without Torres and Gerrard, they quite literally have nothing. Benayoun? Creative but finicky. Can't finish either, he's off and on. Babel sucks, he's fast but he has poor decision making skills. Lucas? Just a bland central midfielder. Kuyt? Works hard, but he needs a central striker to play off of. He's not a winger and it shows. David N'Gog? Young and so far useless. Riera? He can shoot and that is about it. Voronin? For some reason, only excels in the Bundesliga.

So what's the problem? No replacement for the two truly world class players on the squad. When I say no replacement, I don't mean that nobody can play that position at all. Lucas can fill in for Mascherano. Riera, Babel, Kuyt, Benayoun, even Aurelio and Johnson can play on the wings. But when it comes to having a target man, one of the world's best lone strikers, NOBODY on the squad even comes close to Fernando Torres. It was rumored during the transfer window that Benitez wanted to get his hands on Alvaro Negredo. It seems now that wouldn't have been such a bad idea.

A replacement for Steven Gerrard? That's a even more difficult. Steven Gerrard is the heart, soul, and spine of Liverpool. Where can you find a suitable replacement for him? He's like a combination of Mascherano, Benayoun, and Albert Riera. The closest player in the Premier League is either Frank Lampard or Gareth Barry. And while they are close seconds, they can't do what Gerrard does. Liverpool is a squad of mediocre players supporting two world-class players.

The difference between this squad and that of Manchester United for the last 2 years is the supporting cast. Manchester United was built around Cristiano Ronaldo and he is unquestionably a genius. Likewise, nobody could question the achievements of Gerrard or Torres. But when you compare Mascherano and Lucas to Carrick and Scholes, or Babel and Riera to Giggs and Nani even, it becomes clear whose squad is more complete.

Either Rafa himself, or his Sporting Director need to get their shit together. Liverpool is already hamstrung financially, and they aren't doing themselves any favors by wasting what little money they have on shitty players. Why not take the Barcelona approach? Quality homegrown players to make up the base, and whenever they need a world class player, they buy 23-28 years old and only one at a time. Dani Alves, Ibrahimovic, Henry. Build the squad piece by piece so it comes together gradually.

Rafa Benitez needs to learn the transfer market or find a new job. His transfer shortcomings have left Liverpool out in the cold. Sucks for them. Their title run is already over and it's only October. Hell, their Champion's League prospects for next year look pretty dim. Manchester City could take their spot- you heard it here first.